WPTC crop update as of 30 September 2022
As the harvest is reaching its end in most regions, the provisional world production estimate stands at 36,8 million tonnes, nearly 3 million tonnes lower than the March 2022 processors’ intentions of 39.7 million tonnes, a reduction of nearly 7%. The final production figure is, however, likely to be even lower as there are strong indications that the California crop will be further reduced, due to the rains in September and China’s and Ukraine’s figures have not yet been received with indications that they will be down.
Processing is continuing from the late summer crop. Not all factories are processing but Paste & Juice factory is running at full capacity. The Nili crop looks promising in terms of quality & yield. The forecast remains the same.
At the end of last week (24/09), a total of 137,000 tonnes had been processed with an average brix of 4.88 and penalties of 6.24%. The harvest will finish in a couple of days in the south-east and next week in the south-west with an extra volume of about 5,000 tonnes which should bring the total to 142,000 tonnes, 87% of the initial contract volume of 163,610 tonnes. About 25,000 tonnes of organics were processed this year.
The harvest is now 99% finished with plans for two factories to run one more day next week to process the last tomatoes. The weather is now good. Late yields were very low, so the total estimate is revised down again to 340,000 tonnes. Quality was good throughout the season with an average brix of 4.9 but there was not enough fruits.
The harvest is now in its last week and the total volume should be about 80,000 tonnes. Yields this season were variable but lower than expected. Quality was good however with an average brix of 5.
In the South, the harvest will continue this week and next week and should end with a total volume of about 2.5 million tonnes. Rains in the last week and yesterday in Puglia have created problems for the harvest and lowered yields. Factories are producing especially food service formats because there is a high demand.
In the North, the last figures released by the OI Nord show that as of 18/09, 2.71 million tonnes (88% of the contracted volume) had been processed with an average brix of 4.86 and 4.62% of penalties. During the last week, ending 25/09, it is estimated that a further 150,000 tonnes were processed bringing the total to c. 2.85 million tonnes. After rains last weekend almost all the factories have closed and only one or two factories continue processing small volumes this week.
The total crop for Italy will probably finish a bit lower than 5.4 million tonnes, depending on the weather condition of these last two weeks of the harvest.
It rained on 13-14 and on 20 September as it did in Spain and led to significant losses in the crop and some delays. The harvest will finish during the first week of October with a total volume expected to be reduced by 10% to about 1.35 million tonnes.
In Extremadura almost all the factories are now closed, and the last ones should finish by 3 or 4 October. The end of the harvest was delayed by rains on 13-14 and 22 September, with up to 70 mm in the Vegas Bajas, which closed the factories for 5 or 6 days. In Andalusia, the last factory closed yesterday (27/09). In the North, processing will continue into October. This was very bad season in Spain, and it is possible that the revised estimate of 2.1 million tonnes will not be reached due to the reduced yields in Andalusia and Extremadura due to the recent rains.
The summer processing season was officially closed at the start of September and only one factory will continue processing late tomatoes until the end of October. The total volume processed will be about 610,000 tonnes, with 94,000 tonnes of 28/30 paste produced.
The harvest is finished in the south and almost done in the Bursa and Karacabey areas where a few factories continue to process about 1000 tonnes per day. The harvest is continuing in the Konya region, but quality is not great with a poor colour. Four or five factories there should continue running for another 7 to 10 days. The total estimate remains unchanged at 2.35 million tonnes.
Other WPTC countries
Almost 80% of the crop has now been harvested. Some rains make it hard for farmers and harvesters. We estimate some yield reduction due climate conditions, with a reduction from 1,6 million tonnes to 1,5 million tonnes.
The estimate is to process 810,055 short tons (734,869 metric tonnes) this week. At the end of this week (week ending October 1st) we will have processed 9,382,096 short tons (8,511,307 metric tonnes). We experienced some rain on September 19-21 with the hardest hit areas in the Northern part of the State that saw in some cases as much as 3 inches (76 mm). In the Central part of the State the rain was much lower in totals. In the North growers had to stop harvest until the fields allowed re-entry. Some were able to get in as early as 3 days after and some who were in the harder hit areas were unable to harvest for a week. Northern factories are up and running at this point and closely monitoring the mold levels in the deliveries. As this is still developing it is unknown as to what extent it will impact the final delivered tonnage, but there will be an impact.
Harvest is 87% complete and expected to wrap up by the third week of October. The weather has been favourable with yields, and quality remining good.
The 2022 production season will end at the end of September. Statistics on the situation in China are being compiled and will be sent during the first week of October.
As of the end of September, harvesting has finished in production areas other than the Hokkaido region. In some parts of the Tohoku region, heavy and long rains caused a significant decrease in harvest. The total harvest in Japan is expected to be 27,000 tonnes, the same as last report.
The main season ended about two weeks earlier than normal in September. The industry projects a 120,000 tonnes harvest, which is nearly 30% below the planned expected volumes. 100% of available volumes have already been delivered.